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💵 Polymarket is leveraging “Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard” on HuggingFace for online gambling on the “Top AI model on January 31?”. 🤗
As of January 3rd, 2025:
-1./ Gemini (83%) -2./ ChatGPT (13%) -3./ Other (2%) -4./ Claude (2%) -5./ Grok (1%) -6./ Llama (<1%)
🇺🇸 The market opinion is following historical data. It's clearly bias towards US historical AI giants, yet Polymarket is forbidden in the USA and for US citizens.
🇨🇳 In the “Other”, you might have Chinese AI labs that are probably the future AI leaders (Qwen, DeepSeek, Yi).
⚖️ In the market resolution, if two models are tied in the evaluation, they will take the alphabetical order. (e.g. if both were tied, “Google” would resolve to “Yes”, and “xAI” would resolve to “No”). 🙃
That might be illegal usage of the Chatbot Arena policy? And maybe HuggingFace? @clem
Or maybe authors and contributors should get a cut each month as “market markers”. @weichiang @angelopoulos
As of January 3rd, 2025:
-1./ Gemini (83%) -2./ ChatGPT (13%) -3./ Other (2%) -4./ Claude (2%) -5./ Grok (1%) -6./ Llama (<1%)
🇺🇸 The market opinion is following historical data. It's clearly bias towards US historical AI giants, yet Polymarket is forbidden in the USA and for US citizens.
🇨🇳 In the “Other”, you might have Chinese AI labs that are probably the future AI leaders (Qwen, DeepSeek, Yi).
⚖️ In the market resolution, if two models are tied in the evaluation, they will take the alphabetical order. (e.g. if both were tied, “Google” would resolve to “Yes”, and “xAI” would resolve to “No”). 🙃
That might be illegal usage of the Chatbot Arena policy? And maybe HuggingFace? @clem
Or maybe authors and contributors should get a cut each month as “market markers”. @weichiang @angelopoulos
