model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures
Chronos-2,83.49146110056927,43.084958270862664,0.0,0.3335885247615804,0.0,0.0
TimesFM-3,82.54269449715369,43.21512052106865,0.0,1.5423503256585849,0.0,0.0
TimesFM-2.5,76.280834914611,39.405460726883256,0.0,0.21114962999999998,0.11764705882352941,0.0
t0-beta,76.280834914611,41.566566416799866,0.0,0.39731692910815275,0.0,0.0
TiRex-2,75.52182163187855,41.299866988194935,0.0,0.35149025861755945,0.0,0.0
FlowState,71.34724857685009,38.52365982502688,0.0,0.6791522460784314,0.0,0.0
TiRex,70.58823529411765,38.664211906090074,0.0,0.1372293080392157,0.0,0.0
TabPFN-TS,69.25996204933587,42.35612034793553,0.0,53.93700547485116,0.0,0.0
TabPFN-TS-3,67.55218216318785,41.160694873508554,0.0,207.1012209109704,0.0,0.0
citras-fm,67.36242884250474,38.692030967773526,0.0,0.25170150612913866,0.0,0.0
TS-ICL,65.08538899430741,39.17636203783326,0.0,1.3284399013646575,0.0,0.0
Toto-2.0-2.5B,63.75711574952562,35.32909998910938,0.0,5.83324835857143,0.0,0.0
Toto-2.0-313m,63.18785578747628,36.05068561273137,0.0,1.0526592295833332,0.0,0.0
Toto-2.0-1B,62.23908918406072,35.636340061546576,0.0,2.421286794117647,0.0,0.0
Chronos-Bolt,59.77229601518026,37.895505694084896,0.0,0.12552677156862746,0.0,0.0
Toto-2.0-22m,57.685009487666036,35.349544776717664,0.0,0.22620109156862742,0.0,0.0
Moirai-2.0,50.664136622390885,34.96939098084367,0.0,0.2264706033333333,0.11764705882352941,0.0
Toto-1.0,49.71537001897534,33.821929615033476,0.0,5.430547442486061,0.0,0.0
Toto-2.0-4m,48.57685009487666,34.85996673088817,0.0,0.17278278019607843,0.0,0.0
Stat. Ensemble,42.88425047438331,26.73938300302533,0.0,26.516437665338984,0.0,0.0
AutoETS,36.62239089184061,-34.43610797176,0.0,0.4592729738983051,0.0,0.0
TFT,35.673624288425046,22.621784862461645,191.6963338890511,0.1497769706240487,0.0,0.0
AutoARIMA,33.586337760910816,17.16572553901449,0.0,3.3903949554211525,0.0,0.0
Sundial-Base,32.63757115749525,28.136628738197324,0.0,7.870155007102804,0.0,0.0
CatBoost,26.37571157495256,17.267343579809324,7.425169413750001,0.0345105243220339,0.0,0.0
PatchTST,25.426944971537,19.019958490681464,108.83663356934305,0.18933264557220708,0.0,0.0
AutoTheta,24.288425047438334,18.59747321381262,0.0,0.6642809920338983,0.0,0.0
LightGBM,23.908918406072107,17.63932213207273,0.25864546244670383,0.028219497457627123,0.0,0.0
DeepAR,20.493358633776094,17.55615896535253,122.92824444355932,0.32974861398999994,0.0,0.0
Naive,14.136622390891842,0.0,0.0,0.277928699270073,0.0,0.0
Seasonal Naive,14.136622390891842,0.0,0.0,0.2615536627737226,0.0,0.0
Drift,8.918406072106261,-0.4347989849139422,0.0,0.2592828416058394,0.0,0.0